Mathematics Behind Pokies: Understanding Odds and Payouts

Pokies in New Zealand have become trendy. Approximately 17,799 pokie machines are available in pubs, hotels, and casinos.

Kiwis love to play various pokies games, baccarat, blackjack, lightning links, and many others.

But before that, knowing the mathematics behind pokies odds and payouts is crucial. We need to understand how much and how often we will land a winning.

So, let’s unlock the logic behind the pokies’ mathematics and winning strategies.

Understanding Pokies Odds

Odds in pokies are nothing but the probability of landing a winning combination. These are often expressed in ratios like 100:1, 50:1, etc.

Lower odds mean less likely to appear or rare, and higher odds mean the occurrence is more frequent.

However, while playing pokies, the truth is that there is a 1 in 7,000,000 chance of landing a top win in any pokies machine.

Its Random Number Generator (RNG) software determines the odds of winnings, which ensures that each spin is independent and random.

Random Number Generator (RNG)

The random number generator determines the odds of winning and ensures that each spin remains independent and random.

It is a microprocessor or chip fitted inside a pokie machine. It works on a computed algorithm and generates numbers or symbols associated with the machine.

Unlike other casino games like baccarat and blackjack, you cannot make a strategy or guess what number will make you win.

Pokie machines are purely based on luck, and the presence of RNG confirms this.

However, it is said that the odds ratio is 1 in 10, but that does not mean you’ll land a winning every 10th spin.

Each spin is independent, and your past results will not affect future ones.

The pokies odds are directly related to the number of reels and symbols.

Generally, most pokies have three to five or more reels, and the symbols cannot be predicted as each reel has a different number of symbols.

Let’s calculate the number of possible combinations a pokies machine can have. Assume it has ten symbols in a pokie.

Total number of combinations = (Number of Symbols per Reel) to the power Number of Reels

10*10*10 = 1000

Return to Player (RTP)

Return to Player (RTP) is a primary method that impacts pokies’ payouts. It is calculated as a percentage.

It represents a percentage of wagered money that a pokie machine is expected to pay back players over time.

For example, if the pokie has an RTP of 95%, it means that a pokie promises to pay back 95% of the money that you have wagered.

But before trusting it, make it very clear that there is no guarantee that you will win. It is entirely based on luck.

Generally, a good pokie has an RTP of 95% or above.

The payout on pokies is a mixture of RTP and house edge. The house edge is calculated as 100% – RTP. So, in this case, 100% – 95% = 5% House Edge.

So, if you put in $100, on average, you should get 95 dollars back, and the casino will take the other $5.

Volatility

Volatility refers to the risk level associated with a pokie machine.

• Low Volatility: Frequent small wins.
• Medium Volatility: A balance of small and large wins.
• High Volatility: Infrequent large wins.

Example Calculation of Pokies Odds

Consider a simplified example with a three-reel pokie, each reel having ten symbols:

1. Total Combinations: 10×10×10=1,000
2. Jackpot Combination: Assume there is one combination that results in a jackpot.
3. Probability of Jackpot: The probability of hitting the jackpot is 1/1,000=0.1%.

If there are 20 winning combinations overall, the probability of hitting any winning combination is:

20/1,000=2%

How Does Pokies Payout – Maths Behind

Several key concepts are involved in understanding pokies payouts, including paytables, RTPs, and volatility.

1. Paytables

There is a paytable that shows how much each winning combination of symbols is worth.

• Symbol Values: Each symbol on the reels has a specific value. High-value symbols pay more, while low-value symbols pay less.
• Combinations: The paytable details the payouts for all possible combinations of symbols on active pay lines.

2. Expected Value (EV)

Expected Value is the average amount a player can expect to win or lose per bet over time.

• Calculation: Sum the payouts for each outcome multiplied by the probability.
  • For example, if there’s a 1% chance of winning $100 and a 99% chance of winning $0, the EV per $1 bet is EV=(0.01×100)+(0.99×0)=1.
  • This means the expected value per bet is $1, breakeven.

Example Calculation of Payouts

Consider a simple three-reel pokie with ten symbols on each reel and three identical symbols in a row, resulting in a win:

1. Total Combinations: 10×10×10=1,000.
2. Winning Combination: Assume there are ten winning combinations that each pay out $50.
3. Probability of Winning: The probability of hitting a winning combination is 10/1,000=1%.

Based on a $1 bet per spin, you can expect the following payout:

EV=(0.01×50)+(0.99×0)=0.50

Accordingly, for every $1 bet, you can expect to win $0.50, resulting in a theoretical RTP of 50%.

Editor’s Verdict

Understanding the odds and payouts isn’t just about luck—it’s a blend of mathematics and technology. The RNG makes each spin random and independent.

Return to Player (RTP) is a key metric, indicating the percentage of wagered money a pokie is expected to pay back over time.

For example, a pokie with a 95% RTP theoretically returns $95 for every $100 wagered, with a 5% house edge.

Volatility measures the risk level and payout frequency:

• Low Volatility: Frequent, smaller wins.
• High Volatility: Infrequent, larger wins.

Expected Value (EV) helps estimate potential returns. In a scenario with a 1% chance of winning $100, the EV per $1 bet is $1, balancing potential gains and losses.

In summary, the Pokies machine is luck-based, and you cannot rely on any single strategy.

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